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The full forecaster analysis can be found here (subscription required). Edited by Kyle Kondik, J. contact info. It could be awhile before all votes are counted. Note: Based on 170 contested races. In a previous article in the Crystal Ball, I examined the outlook for the 2022 House and Senate elections at the national level based on the generic ballot forecasting model. Here's a list of the ups anddowns: A more competitive national environment and some weaker GOP nominees mean neither party enters the final two months before the election with a significant advantage in the battle for Senate control. Four of the 6 contests that are expected to be very competitive are currently held by Democrats (Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and New Hampshire) while the other 2 (North Carolina and Pennsylvania) are currently held by Republicans. In all likelihood that will be the case again in 2022 a handful of close contests will decide which party controls the upper chamber. Note: Win probabilities may not add up to 100 because of third-party candidates. Several interesting patterns are evident in these data. I think its still yet unarticulated and undeveloped. These results suggest that Republicans have a slight edge in the 2022 Senate elections when it comes to potential seat swing based on the fundamentals in these races. Voters in Kentucky will decide whether to approve an amendment that would reject abortion rights in the State Constitution. Alicia Parlapiano With neither party holding a clear advantage, control of the Senate will likely come down to a half dozen or so competitive contests in which the strengths and weaknesses of individual candidates could be crucial. See the Senate forecast * This is FiveThirtyEights best guess as to who the nominee will be, based on an analysis of incumbency, polls, fundraising, previous . Rosenberg was vindicated when Democrats vastly overperformed expectations last year. Kennedy Elliott The remaining vote there could tighten the race as it is counted. Web2022 United States Senate elections 2020 November 8, 2022 December 6 ( Georgia runoff) 2024 35 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate 51 [a] seats needed for a majority Results of the elections: Democratic gain Democratic hold Republican hold No election Rectangular inset ( Oklahoma ): both seats up for election Democratic Gov. New Hampshire- It is a state of predominantly moderate whites. See our election dashboard and find your Taking control of the governorship and both legislative chambers in these states could ease Democrats ability to pass legislation on an array of issues. All rights reserved. All rights reserved. The greater success of Democratic candidates in states won by the opposing partys presidential candidate was crucial to their ability to win a slight majority of Senate races during these years. Lazaro Gamio , Frank J. Mrvan, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Indianas First Congressional District. Nov. 9, 2022, J.D. Nov. 9, 2022, Alaska has competitive races for both the Senate and the House, neither of which is a straightforward Democrat-versus-Republican affair. Heres how it works Nov. 8, 2022, Nevada is the last big swing state of the day, and virtually everything is up for grabs: The races for Senate, three House seats, governor and secretary of state. Centrist anti-fascist and anti-communist. Lazaro Gamio The predictions for races expected to be relatively close, with predicted margins of less than 10 points, were only correct a little over two-thirds of the time. Read more In order to estimate the contributions of state partisanship, incumbency, and election timing to the outcomes of Senate elections between 2012 and 2020, I conducted a multiple regression analysis with the Democratic candidates margin as the dependent variable. Weve demonstrated that in the current political environment, we can grow the coalition. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. . Visit. Box 400806 Charlottesville, VA 22904. As of now, its considered a toss This is who we think will win. The outcomes of the races in these three states will decide the balance of power in the Senate. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. I then applied the findings from these earlier elections to the 35 contests taking place this year in order to predict their outcomes. That leaves Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania in the middle. Democratic Rep. Ami Bera is still a heavy favorite, but his party appears set to lose ground in California. All indications are that both Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis are planning to run for President, and we are tracking the latest polling nationally and in every state. The forecast will shift to account for which party is consistently doing better across the country compared to our projections, and calculate the chance both have of winning the majority. . Looking for After facing credible charges of child molestation, Moore went on to lose the general election to Democrat Doug Jones, a civil rights lawyer and former U.S. Attorney. Ohio. We work hard to make predictions that are both accurate and defensible. If Republicans win all of the races where they are currently leading by two points or more, theyll take control of the House. Incumbent: Republican Rob Portman (retiring) Trumps strength in Ohio but if its not done with empathy and tact it risks outrunning the vast middle part of the country, which progressive activists seem completely uninterested in talking to. Maggie Astor Senate Projection. Looking for the National Picture for the 2022 Senate Forecast? Senate elections in California (2016 and 2018), Alabama (2014), and Arkansas (2020) were excluded because there were not 2 major-party candidates in the general election. Similarly, Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan is narrowly ahead of GOP candidate Don Bolduc in New Hampshire, though Bolduc is within striking distance. Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. WebDemocrats will hold 51 seats in the Senate, providing the party with a majority that likely wont have to rely as heavily on Vice President Kamala Harris tie-breaking vote. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. Alicia Parlapiano Follow along here Beto ORourke performed better than expected in these majority-Hispanic counties. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat, won a tough re-election race against her Republican rival, Tudor Dixon. Todays voting will decide the balance of power in Congress. In the case of the Senate, however, the results indicated that the outcome was likelier to be close to a standoff. These mirages show that vote margins early in the night can change significantly. Here are the states: Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kentucky, Missouri, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota and Utah. Nov. 9, 2022, With more counties nearly finished counting, things keep looking better for Lt. Gov. Depending on how many people vote Democrat in New Orleans, there is an outside chance for this seat to flip to the Democrats. Theres no way that theyre going to be able to reposition him over the next year and a half. Eight of those counties that voted for Biden in 2020 shifted 16 points to the right in the race for governor, and 12 points in the Senate race. Nov. 8, 2022. , Emilia Sykes, Democrat, wins U.S. House seat to represent Ohios 13th Congressional District. Today, Democrats control the U.S. Senate by the slimmest of margins Vice President Kamala Harris serves as the tiebreaking vote in a chamber thats divided 50-50. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. It's one thing to tell you who's likely to win POLITICO's Election Forecast also tells you why. Republican candidates won 83 out of 170 contested Senate races between 2012 and 2020, but the prediction model indicates that they should have won 91. GOP Gov. , Brad Raffensperger, Republican, is re-elected as Georgias secretary of state. Overall, incumbents won 87% of their races. RacetotheWH has in-depth predictions for every Governor, Senate and House Race, polling for the 2024 primaries, and a Bidens approval rating tracker. Please help update this article to reflect recent events or newly available information. In both 2012 and 2018, Manchin far outperformed the expected vote for a Democratic candidate in a state that Donald Trump carried twice by enormous margins. Democrats extremely narrow majorities in Congress are highly vulnerable, and the traditional midterm penalty suffered by the party in power has Republicans likely to gain upward of 15 House seats, and they have a good shot of taking full control of Congress. Abortion clearly shifted the playing field in some of these places, and so did the MAGA extremism of some of the GOP candidates. Our model currently predicts that Republicans have a 59.3% chance of controlling the Senate. Tonight, our election forecast will show live estimates for which party is favored to win control in the Senate and House. Chris Pappas, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent New Hampshires First Congressional District. Alicia Parlapiano Current House. Based on the fundamentals of state partisanship, incumbency, and the national political environment, Republicans have a good chance to pick up at least a seat and take back control of the upper chamber. Our Senate forecast is based on past results, polling data and the current vote count. Read more Despite a difficult environment, Gov. The media has given Oz and Walker plenty of attention as the GOPs worst Senate candidates, but Johnson might be right Reporting by Grace Ashford, Maggie Astor, Michael C. Bender, Sarah Borell, Sarah Cahalan, Emily Cochrane, Nick Corasaniti, Jill Cowan, Catie Edmondson, Reid J. Epstein, Nicholas Fandos, Lalena Fisher, Trip Gabriel, Katie Glueck, J. David Goodman, Blake Hounshell, Shawn Hubler, Annie Karni, Maya King, Stephanie Lai, Lisa Lerer, Jonathan Martin, Patricia Mazzei, Alyce McFadden, Jennifer Medina, Azi Paybarah, Mitch Smith, Tracey Tully, Jazmine Ulloa, Neil Vigdor and Jonathan Weisman; production by Andy Chen, Amanda Cordero, Alex Garces, Chris Kahley, Laura Kaltman, Andrew Rodriguez and Jessica White; editing by Wilson Andrews, Kenan Davis, William P. Davis, Kennedy Elliott, Amy Hughes, Ben Koski, Allison McCartney and Karen Workman. Elissa Slotkin, Democrat, wins re-election to the U.S. House to represent Michigans Seventh Congressional District. WebTexas Senate: With Democrats on Defense, Lone Star State Is a Reach Jessica Taylor March 29, 2023 Members Only Senate Overview The Looming Senate GOP Primary Wars Jessica Taylor March 7, 2023 Members Only Michigan Senate Michigan Senate: With Slotkin Announcement, Democrats Look to Avoid Primary Jessica Taylor February 28, Our 2022 election forecast is final and no longer updating. Source: Election results and race calls are from The Associated Press. Were getting results for ballot measures related to abortion and reproductive rights in Kentucky, Michigan and Vermont. Virginias Seventh District is one of three races in the state that could offer an early sign of whether the Democrats can retain control of the House. Heres who won Out of 170 races contested by both major parties, 43% were decided by a margin of 20 points or more, 28% were decided by a margin of 10-20 points, and 15% were decided by a margin of 5-10 points. Source: Data compiled by author. If you would like to change your settings or withdraw consent at any time, the link to do so is in our privacy policy accessible from our home page.. We and our partners use cookies to Store and/or access information on a device. WebBattle for the Senate 2022. And Kansas Democratic governor, Laura Kelly, is in a tight re-election race, as is Gov. November 8 We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. Who will protect women from the courts and legislatures. Ron DeSantis, a hard-right conservative, is facing Representative Charlie Crist, a former Republican governor who switched parties. The lines below include an estimate of uncertainty. RCP Gov Map Race Changes. State officials say that counting all of the votes may take several days. that guide every prediction he makes. Does the incumbent in the race consistently overperform their partys baseline in the district? Everyone covered the Democratic Party being in a defensive crouch last year. Web2022 Senate. The race for North Carolinas open Senate seat is leaning toward Representative Ted Budd, a Republican, according to our estimates. These contests should be regarded as Toss-ups. Read more Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. Kathy Hochul claimed victory late Tuesday against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative Republican. Steve Shepard, our chief forecaster, has settled on four core principles Alicia Parlapiano The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Current Senate Note: Seat estimates may not sum to the total number of seats because of third-party candidates. Third, he would somehow have to obscure the rightward lurch he just went through in the current legislative session the six-week abortion ban, the permitless carry, the assaults on public education and diversity. RCP House Map Race Changes. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans must win just 19 competitive seats to retake majority control from the Democrats. We and our partners use data for Personalised ads and content, ad and content measurement, audience insights and product development. These are our estimates for which party will win control of the House, and the estimated number of seats won by each party. Three other races, in North Carolina, Nevada, and New Hampshire, are also expected to be closely contested. Here are my predictions for the top seven most competitive Senate races in the 2022 midterm election. The Associated Press has not yet called the race. Nov. 9, 2022, Voters in three states enshrined lasting protections for abortion rights in their state Constitutions. Albert Sun The facts are that the country is better off. Nov. 9, 2022, Democratic House candidates outperformed Biden in several Michigan districts, bucking a rightward trend and maintaining seven of their seats. Pennsylvania's new congressional map is generally good news for Democrats except for Rep. Susan Wild, whose Lehigh Valley seat got tougher for her. What we expect this year Half of the Senate's thirty-four seats in the Missouri Senate were up for election every two years, with each Senator serving four-year terms.[1]. There is also an unexpectedly competitive Senate race in Utah between Senator Mike Lee, a Republican, and Evan McMullin, an independent. We analyzed every House, Senate and gubernatorial seat to determine who we think will win the 2022 midterm elections. Karen Tumulty: Biden defines the central question of the 2024 election. US midterms 2022 Results Senate House Democrats retain control of the Senate Republican hopes of picking up seats in Arizona and Nevada fall short House One of the tightest governors races in the country is between Gov. Pennsylvanias Senate race now leans Democratic, according to our estimates. We use polling where appropriate, but we always factor in our understanding of the pollster's quality. Possibly. The reason I would even consider a chance for Republicans is similar to Louisiana for Democrats. Follow the latest election results here . With a 5050 Senate, the vice president should be the kingmaker and cast the tie-breaking vote. On Monday, we will launch our Georgia Senate Runoff Predictions. Figure 1: Scatterplots of seat change by predicted seat change in House and Senate midterm elections, 1946-2018 Source: Data compiled by author Conditional forecasts for the 2022 midterms Arizonas Senate race is a currently tossup, according to our estimates. Nov. 8, 2022, Republicans are favored to win the open Senate races in North Carolina and Ohio, but if Democrats have a better-than-expected day, these are two places we might see evidence of it. This finding indicates that Republican candidates have underperformed in Senate elections relative to what we would have expected based on state presidential partisanship, incumbency, and election type. *. You know you are right when you are hated by the left and the right. Alicia Parlapiano The tables below show the closest races, and the number of races leaning toward either party, in our estimates. Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak.
